20 November (CLIM) Dixon, Downscaling Heat

Keith Dixon, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 

Title: Questions Arising when Translating Climate Projections for use in Heat and Health Studies 

November 20 2024, 1:30pm 

Planetary Hall 224 and via Zoom (for link, email lortizur@gmu.edu) 

Host: Luis Ortiz 

Heat is one of the leading weather-related killers in the United States, resulting in hundreds of fatalities each year. Observations show an upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, and climate modeling studies indicate this trend will continue. Consequently, it is important for scientists, health officials, government planners, and other stakeholders to enhance their understanding of climate data and use it effectively to make informed decisions aiming to reduce risks and protect public health. However, applied researchers and stakeholders often are interested in smaller spatial scales and climate-related variables that are closely linked to factors beyond the raw output of climate model projections. Translating information about the physical climate into more relevant terms can be accomplished by incorporating prudent data processing into well-designed applied climate impacts studies. Yet, quantifying and communicating uncertainties inherent to the process can be a challenge. This talk shares insights from an ongoing effort involving a multidisciplinary partnership, including officials from the City of Philadelphia. We examine uncertainties associated with climate information as it moves through different processing stages, from climate model projections through downscaling techniques and some common methodological choices made when using the heat index as an exposure metric.