28 Oct (CLIM) - Thompson, Modernizing US Precipitation Modeling
Speaker: Dr. Alexander Thompson, University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
Title:Modernizing extreme precipitation guidance for the United States with kilometer-scale modeling
Time: Wed, 28 Oct, 1:30-2:30 pm
Location: Exploratory Hall, Room L111 or via Zoom (for Zoom link, email xdu5@gmu.edu)
Host: Tehreem Qureshi/Xiaojing Du
ABSTRACT: Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is an important design standard for ensuring the safety of our nation’s aging critical infrastructure in the face of more frequent precipitation extremes. A 2024 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) report on modernizing probable maximum precipitation for the United States recommends creation of a multi-model large ensemble of kilometer-scale climate simulations for improved estimation of this outdated design standard. In this talk, I will first introduce an ongoing effort within NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory to modernize PMP following NASEM report recommendations. Next, I will present a large ensemble of kilometer-scale climate simulations, called CONUS-Futures, that aims to address long-term recommendations from the NASEM report for estimating PMP into the future. This dynamically downscaled model ensemble uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale global climate models, such as NCAR’s CESM2 Large Ensemble, over a conterminous United States (CONUS) domain. The first iteration of CONUS-Futures began production mode in July 2026 on Microsoft Azure’s cloud computing system and is estimated to be complete in March 2027.
Bio: Dr. Alex Thompson is a Research Scientist II at the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and an affiliate in NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory. His research explores extreme precipitation in kilometer-scale models as a part of NOAA’s Probable Maximum Precipitation Modernization effort. Alex completed his PhD at the University of Michigan in 2021 and served as a Postdoc at Washington University in St. Louis from 2021-2024.
