4 December (CLIM) Bentley, Short title

Alicia Bentley, National Centers for Environmental Prediction 

Title: An Overview of Global Model Verification at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) 

December 4 2024, 1:30pm 

Planetary Hall 224 and via Zoom (for link, email lortizur@gmu.edu) 

Host: Austin Reed 

In order to improve the numerical models produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), model forecasts must be verified and evaluated during development and in production.  The Verification, Post-Processing, and Product Generation Branch (VPPPGB) of NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is responsible for the verification and evaluation of numerical models planned for and included in NCEP’s Production Suite.  As part of the verification process, model forecasts are evaluated statistically using a variety of metrics to 1) determine performance characteristics and 2) identify areas for improvement.  Forecast maps of high-impact weather, ocean, and climate events are also evaluated to determine the utility of NCEP’s numerical models in situations that impact lives and property. 
 
This presentation provides an overview of global model verification at NCEP/EMC.  The performance of NCEP's current global models will be discussed, as well as the results from past official model evaluations (which occur prior to operational model upgrades).  In addition, this presentation will provide a preview of the operational EMC Verification System (EVS), which replaced and expanded upon EMC’s previous operational verification software in March 2024.  EVS utilizes the Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) software to provide a comprehensive look at the global and regional models included in NCEP’s Production Suite.  Verification graphics produced by EVS have a consistent, publication-quality format and are shared with the broader community daily on EMC’s Verification website.