Upcoming Events
Mason Online Pandemic MODeling Forum
Jun 12, 2020, 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM
Anton Pichler, University of Oxford: Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?
Abstract: We analyze the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two-month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.
Bio: Anton Pichler is a PhD student in Mathematics under the supervision of Professor Doyne Farmer and Professor Cameron Hepburn. He is a member of the Complexity Economics group at the Institute of New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford. His research interests encompass technological evolution, innovation and complex economic networks. In his thesis, Anton develops methods for technology forecasting which incorporate economic network data with a special focus on green energy technologies. Anton holds a BA in Political Science and a BSc in Economics, both awarded by the University of Vienna. He completed the MSc degree in Quantitative Finance at the Vienna University of Economics and Business.
Meeting number (access code): 120 562 4156
Meeting password: nW9jQvzGE82
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