Upcoming Events
Mason's Online Pandemic Modeling Forum - Friday, April 23 - Sergei Maslov and Ahmed Elbanna
Apr 23, 2021, 3:00 - 4:30 PM
Online Forum Link | Meeting # (access code): 161 962 8856 Meeting password: rQapg4SdH83 Join by video system: Dial 1619628856@gmu.webex.com Or dial 173.243.2.68 and enter the meeting # Join by phone: +1-415-655-0003 US Toll +1-202-860-2110 United States Toll (Wash., D.C.) Access code: 161 962 8856 |
Date | Friday, April 23, 2021 |
Time | 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm EDT (UTC-4:00) |
Title | Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity |
Authors
| Sergei Maslov, Bliss Faculty Scholar at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) with faculty appointments at Departments of Bioengineering, Department of Physics, Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, and National Center for Supercomputing Application and Ahmed Elbanna, Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana Champaign Ahmed Elbanna, Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana Champaign |
Abstract | In the first half of the talk, we will describe agent-based models to predict the spread of COVID-19 at a large public university, similar to the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The purpose of the modeling was to determine whether or not it is possible to reopen such a university without exponential growth of the epidemic on campus, and what surveillance testing and other non-pharmaceutical interventions are required to accomplish this goal. Distinctive features of this modeling approach are: (1) Physical modeling of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by aerosols; (2) Representation of student behavioral heterogeneity through a range of infection zones, with differing transmission characteristics and risks; (3) Evaluation of infection through classroom exposure using the social network generated by the timetable of over 45,000 students; (4) Estimation of the effective reproduction number achievable by a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The models do not assume compliance with social distancing or other health authority guidelines, outside the university, but do assume (initially at least) compliance with testing and legally-required isolation as instructed by health authorities. |
Speaker Bio | Sergei Maslov is the Bliss Faculty Scholar at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) with faculty appointments at Departments of Bioengineering, Department of Physics, Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, and National Center for Supercomputing Applications. He also holds I also a joint appointment at Argonne National Laboratory, Computing, Environment, and Life Sciences (CELS) directorate, where he works on Deep Neural Networks for cancer drug predictions. Ahmed Elbanna, Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana Champaign. His research interests include
Our research focuses on problems in theoretical and applied mechanics of solids, in the presence and absence of pore fluids, with special emphasis on fracture, deformation and wave propagation. |