Mathematics Colloquium: Do we need to adapt to a changing climate, or to the rate at which it is changing?

Speaker:  Christopher Jones, UNC Chapel Hill, George Mason University, and the University of Reading

Title:  Do we need to adapt to a changing climate, or to the rate at which it is changing?

Abstract:  The climate is changing due to the heat trapping caused by the rapid increase in greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere. One way to state the issue is that we cannot, as a species, adapt to the new conditions quickly enough. This is an example of rate-induced tipping. But tipping is usually associated with the possibility, and fear, of abrupt shifts in a climate subsystem. There are many such examples: Greenland ice sheet loss, break-off of Antarctic ice-sheets, boreal forest dieback, permafrost loss etc. While these tipping scenarios are mostly viewed in terms of bifurcation-based or noise-induced tipping, it may be that rate-induced tipping is the most relevant for exactly the reason that parameters effecting these shifts are changing more rapidly than the ability of the system to adjust. I will discuss the dynamical systems behind rate-induced tipping, which has been developed over the past ten years, open questions, applications to climate related systems and interesting new directions in which noise and rate change are working together. 

Time:  Friday, April 15, 2022, 3:30pm – 4:20pm

Place:  Exploratory Hall, room 4106

In-person and on Zoom