Upcoming Events
Research Colloquium on Computational Social Science/Data Science
Aug 28, 2020, 3:00 - 4:30 PM
Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities
Professor Charles Jones, STANCO 25 Professor of Economics, Stanford Graduate School of Economics, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and various countries and regions to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baseline mortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 1.0% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.5% or 1.2%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths.
Charles I. Jones is the STANCO 25 Professor of Economics at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Professor Jones has been honored as a National Fellow of the Hoover Institution, a John M. Olin Foundation Faculty Fellow, and an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Research Fellow. His research has been supported by a series of grants from the National Science Foundation.
Professor Jones is the author of numerous research papers as well as two textbooks, Introduction to Economic Growth (2013) and Macroeconomics (2014). He graduated from Harvard College in 1989 and received his PhD from MIT in 1993.
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