Thesis Defense: Rachel Jankowski

Candidate: Rachel Jankowski

Master of Science in Geographic and Cartographic Sciences

Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science

Date: Tuesday, May 9th, 2023

Time: 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM

TITLE: Re-greening opportunities in Northern Virginia based on land cover patterns and social vulnerability criteria

Committee:

Thesis Director: Dr. Nathan Burtch

Committee Members: Dr. Matthew Rice, Dr. Taylor Anderson

ABSTRACT:

This research reviews a number of socio-demographic and environmental criteria in the interest of identifying suitable areas for re-greening in Northern Virginia. The study area encompasses nine county and county equivalents in Northern Virginia whose sprawling development, demographic characteristics, and historical evolution towards an urban fringe landscape places it at potential risk for adverse effects related to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Various methods and techniques have been explored to help combat the implications of the UHI, which can result in higher-than-average heat indices, place both the natural and built environment at risk, as well as increase health impacts in local populations with known risk factors. One of the most effective and affordable mitigation techniques is the use of vegetation in the form of grasses, trees, and shrubs that help to cool urban surfaces and reduce ambient temperatures. Using an adapted multi-criteria analysis technique and GIS, this research finds the best suited areas for re-greening efforts.

Overall, the research found several case study areas that scored as high candidates for re-greening, and whose spatial range aligned with expected trends related to the UHI and areas that tend to be hotter such as those that have shifted from forested to development over the course of 18 years (2001 to 2019). The research showed that these areas often exist alongside vulnerable communities as well. Pockets of re-greening suitability include areas in southeastern Prince William, Loudoun County, Manassas and Manassas Park, Alexandria, and parts of eastern Fairfax County. Some areas have major focus on economic development thus resulting in urban and suburban sprawl, while more established neighborhoods that have been developed for quite some time but whose infrastructure tends to leave communities more at risk for heat related issues. The results were highly dependent on the unique status of the region, but this research found that there are many hectares worth of suitable areas that would certainly benefit from additional green space in light of climate change and UHI trends