George Mason Virginia Climate Center Releases First-Ever Statewide Climate Assessment
George Mason University’s Virginia Climate Center (VCC) has unveiled the Commonwealth’s first comprehensive, peer-reviewed climate assessment—a landmark report that provides science-based insights into Virginia’s changing climate and its impacts on communities, infrastructure, and the economy.
The First Virginia State Climate Assessment (VCA) synthesizes decades of research into a single, accessible resource for policymakers, businesses, educators, and the public. Developed by a multidisciplinary team across the Commonwealth and the region, this report establishes a critical baseline for understanding how past, present, and future climate conditions will shape life in Virginia.
“This groundbreaking statewide assessment gives us what we've never had before: comprehensive, science-based evidence of the risks we face and the information we need to protect our communities, economy, and natural heritage for generations to come,” said Jim Kinter, director of George Mason’s Virginia Climate Center and coordinating author of the VCA.
“The Virginia Climate Center brought together the Commonwealth's leading scientists and experts to tackle one of the defining challenges of our time. This assessment represents unprecedented collaboration across disciplines and institutions—because a problem this complex demands our best minds working together to deliver rigorous, actionable science that serves all Virginians.”
Why Virginia Needs a State-Level Climate Assessment
While national and global climate reports provide broad trends, they cannot capture Virginia’s unique vulnerabilities. The Commonwealth’s geographic diversity—from coastal plains to mountainous terrain—combined with rapid population growth and economic expansion creates region-specific risks that require localized solutions.
The VCA addresses these needs by organizing findings across six climate divisions: Tidewater, Eastern Piedmont, Western Piedmont, Southwestern Mountain, Central Mountain, and Northern Virginia. Each VCA chapter includes key messages and traceable accounts, offering clear, actionable insights backed by scientific evidence and confidence assessments.
“Global reports are essential for understanding broad climate trends, but they do not capture how those trends manifest at regional—or local—scales,” explained Viviana Maggioni, chapter lead author and professor in George Mason’s Sid and Reva Dewberry Department of Civil, Environmental, and Infrastructure Engineering. “Virginia’s wide variation in topography, precipitation regimes, and land-use creates highly localized climate risks. A state climate assessment accounts for such variability and provides insights needed for effective decision-making.”
Three Critical Climate Hazards for Virginia
The VCA report identifies three primary hazards of particular concern for Virginia in the 21st century:
- Extreme Heat and Rising Temperatures
Increasing temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose significant health risks, disrupt labor productivity, and stress agricultural systems. - Extreme Precipitation and Shifting Seasons
Wetter falls and springs increase flood risks, while drier summers and winters heighten drought and wildfire danger. These changes threaten infrastructure and can lead to power grid disruptions and economic losses. - Accelerated Sea Level Rise
Virginia is experiencing faster-than-average sea level rise, compounded by land subsidence and erosion. Coastal flooding and infrastructure damage are growing concerns for Tidewater and other low-lying regions.
“Climate change is already affecting Virginia—from our coastlines to our mountains,” Kinter,a George Mason Professor in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences emphasized. “This assessment empowers every Virginian, from local planners to business leaders to families, with the knowledge to make informed decisions. And as we continue to update and expand this work, we're building a lasting framework for protecting Virginia's future.”
Implications for Virginia’s Economy and Communities
The VCA underscores the urgent need for integrating climate projections into infrastructure design, land-use planning, and policy development. From transportation networks to energy systems, Virginia’s critical infrastructure must be resilient to evolving climate conditions.
“Weather patterns impact key sectors of the Virginia economy,” noted Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason’s Schar School of Policy and Government. “Having data that shows changing patterns of rainfall and temperature is essential for industry leaders—from small-hold farmers to those managing billions in international commerce. This landmark achievement will hopefully spark awareness that consistent, dependable, and localized weather data will give Virginia farmers, businesses, and government entities the ability to better compete and succeed.”
The assessment is dedicated to the late Representative Gerry Connolly, whose visionary leadership made it possible. “He understood that investing in climate science isn't partisan—it's pragmatic,” Kinter explained. “His commitment to evidence-based solutions and his unwavering support for the Virginia Climate Center helped make this critical work a reality, and his legacy will benefit Virginians for years to come.”
According to Michael Allen, associate professor of climatology at Towson University and contributing author, “The climate challenges outlined in this report transcend geopolitical borders and disciplinary silos. From the hollers of western Virginia to the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore, the assessment meets the needs of the Commonwealth—but it also fills a void for the nation, drawing attention to the science of climate change and the vast impacts it has on communities, our economy, and our wellbeing.”
Looking Ahead: Future Assessments and the Grand Challenge Initiative
This inaugural report is the first in a planned series of VCC led assessments that will incorporate finer-scale geographic detail, expand coverage of climate impacts across sectors, and evaluate adaptation effectiveness over time. Future editions will integrate stakeholder input to ensure relevance and applicability.
The VCA also highlights the urgent need for a Virginia State Climate Office—a centralized resource for climate services, data collection, and expert assessment. “This role is typically filled by a state climate office that provides accessible, no-cost climate information essential to a state’s most vital sectors,” Kinter explained. “However, Virginia is one of only two states in the U.S. currently without a functioning state climate office.”
Marking an important new chapter in the history of research and scholarship at George Mason University, this effort is part of George Mason’s Grand Challenge Initiative which aims to address the greatest threats to humanity’s ability to live a peaceful, healthy, prosperous, and just existence. Through multidisciplinary research strengths in education, public health, space exploration, sustainability, cybersecurity and data management, and peace and democracy, the initiative aligns talent, infrastructure, resources, and partnerships with new ideas to deliver real-world solutions and prepare the next generation of changemakers.
The First Virginia State Climate Assessment is now available to the public and serves as a scientific foundation for informed decision-making and effective climate action. For more information or to request interviews with experts, contact VAclim@gmu.edu or tmason11@gmu.edu.
