Upcoming Events
Colloquium on Computational Social Science/Computational Data Sciences
Feb 5, 2021, 10:00 - 11:30 AM
Using the tools we have to estimate the economic impacts of covid-19: Hector Pollitt, Director and the Head of Modelling at Cambridge Econometrics and Bence Kiss-Dobrony, Economist at Cambridge Econometrics
Only twelve years after the global financial crisis, in 2020 the world again faced an economic crisis from which it is yet to recover. This time around the crisis could not be blamed on economists but conventional macroeconomic theory and models have once again been found wanting. As in 2008, the phrase 'we are all Keynesians now’ was heard in discussions on how to start economic recovery and policy makers have been much more willing to consider non-orthodox policies. This presentation explores why the economics of the pandemic have been so difficult to model. It provides a forecast simulation of the macroeconomic and sectoral economic impacts of covid-19 using the post-Keynesian E3ME macro-econometric model, based on a range of short-term activity indicators that were publicly available at the time. It also describes the effects of two potential recovery packages, one of which could be described as ‘green’. The modelling shows that the green recovery package could support the global economy and national labour markets through the recovery period, outperforming an equivalent conventional stimulus package while simultaneously reducing global energy CO2 emissions by 10%.
Hector Pollitt is the Chief Economist at Cambridge Econometrics. He is also a research fellow at the C-EENRG centre at the Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge. His current research interests include integrating complex, micro-based behaviour within existing macroeconomic frameworks. Hector is a post-Keynesian economist and has worked with the global E3ME macro-econometric model for more than 17 years. In that time, he has contributed modelling to a wide range of official European policy assessments, including the Work-Life Balance Directive and the European Union’s greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2050.
Bence Kiss-Dobronyi has worked for 3 years as an economist in Cambridge Econometrics’ European offices in Budapest and Brussels. His recent work focuses on the macroeconomic impacts of the covid-19 pandemic, green recovery and the inequality dimensions of climate change. Prior to working for Cambridge Econometrics, he worked for 3 years as a technology consultant for Accenture and Hiflylabs. He holds bachelor and master’s degrees in business economics and administration and is an alumnus of the Rajk College Budapest, where he taught courses in applied statistics.
Join WebEx:
Meeting number (access code): 120 323 9602
Meeting password: S7gx73Wfigh
Join by video system: Dial 1203239602@gmu.webex.com
Or dial 173.243.2.68 and enter the meeting number
Join by phone: +1-415-655-0003 US Toll
+1-202-860-2110 United States Toll (Washington D.C.)
Access code: 120 323 9602
All are welcome to attend!