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PhD Dissertation Defense - Geography and Geoinformation Science
Apr 22, 2024, 10:30 AM - 12:30 PM
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https://gmu.zoom.us/j/4903953200?omn=93408430491
Meeting ID: 490 395 3200
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Meeting ID: 490 395 3200
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PhD Candidate: Danielle Brant
PhD of Science, Earth Systems and Geoinformation Sciences
Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science
Title: Investigating the Effects of Increasing Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean on Tornado Activity in the Northeast United States 1990 - 2022
Dissertation Chair: Dr. John J. Qu
Committee Members:
Dr. David Wong (GMU, GGS)
Dr. Donglian Sun (GMU, GGS)
Dr. Kathleen Pegion (University of Oklahoma)
Abstract:
Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Northwest (NW) Atlantic, coupled with projected increases in certain tornado instability parameters due to climate warming, are anticipated to heighten the frequency of severe weather events impacting the Northeast United States. This study addresses gaps in tornado research by analyzing tornado data from 1990 to 2022 with finer spatial resolution, focusing on the Northeast region. Employing geospatial and remote sensing data, we utilize spatio-temporal and statistical methods to investigate how NW Atlantic SST and tornado instability parameters influence tornado frequency, outbreaks, intensity, and spatial distribution. This analysis of multi-dimensional climate data reveals increasing trends in tornado instability parameters across the Northeast U.S. and NW Atlantic SST during the study period. Particularly noteworthy is the heightened tornado activity observed in coastal regions, notably around the Gulf of Maine. Statistical analysis demonstrates a significant correlation between NW Atlantic SST and both annual tornado activity and tornado intensity. Notably, an outbreak of tornadoes in Long Island, New York, and the New England coastal region in November 2021 was directly linked to above-average SSTs in the NW Atlantic. This research has identified areas with smaller spatial extents in the Northeast region that are currently experiencing the greatest increases in tornado activity and implicates how increasing SSTs in the NW Atlantic might also put those same areas at greater risk of future tornado activity and higher intensity tornadoes during outbreaks.