Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19
Apr 9, 2021, 3:00 - 4:30 PM
Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections | NBER
This week's speaker will be Dr. Murat Tasci, Senior Research Economist, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His talk "Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections" is scheduled for Friday, April 9 from 3:00-4:30 p.m. WebeX details follow.
Friday, April 9, 2021
3:00 pm - 4:30 pm EDT (UTC-4:00)
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Access code: 161 962 8856
Murat Tasci, Senior Research Economist, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It presents an alternative scenario analysis for 2021 based on this methodology and argues that the unemployment rate is likely to decline to 5.4 percent by the end of 2021. The predictive power of the methodology comes from its combined use of real-time data with the flow approach.
Murat Tasci is a senior research economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He is primarily interested in macroeconomics and labor economics. His current work focuses on labor market fluctuations over the business cycle, labor market policies and search frictions. Prior to joining the Cleveland Reserve Bank in 2006, Dr. Tasci was a Teaching and Research Assistant at the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Tasci received a bachelor's degree in economics at Koc University in Istanbul, Turkey, and an MS and PhD in economics from the University of Texas at Austin.