George Mason Researcher Leads National Effort to Outsmart Disasters
New Mason-led project could strengthen national disaster response by making shelter access part of federal risk planning.
When disasters strike, survival often depends not only on knowing danger is coming but on being able to reach safety. At George Mason University, Associate Professor of Geography and Geoinformation Science Alireza Ermagun is leading a new national effort to make disaster response more effective by ensuring that access to shelter is built directly into the way the nation measures risk.
Ermagun, who directs Mason’s Mobility Observatory and Data Analytics Lab, has received $324,152 from the National Science Foundation (NSF) for “Collaborative Research: Innovating Decision Aids for Sheltering for Natural Hazard Risks.” Working in partnership with Nazanin Tajik of Mississippi State University, the research seeks to change how the United States evaluates and manages disaster risk.
Running now through August 2028, the project will integrate access to shelters into the National Risk Index, the federal framework used to assess hazard exposure across the country. “This work moves beyond counting hazards,” Ermagun said. “It asks who can actually reach safety when a storm, flood, or wildfire strikes and how we can make those lifesaving routes available before it is too late.”
The research focuses on four major natural hazards that often require sheltering: severe storms, tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires. By examining how people move, where shelters are located, and what barriers exist for vulnerable populations, Ermagun’s team hopes to create tools that help emergency managers identify and close critical gaps in preparedness.
This new project builds on Ermagun’s earlier NSF-funded research, “Snuff It Out: Extinguishing the Disparity of Access to Shelters for Disadvantaged Communities in Wildfire-Prone Areas.” That effort began with direct conversations with emergency managers across wildfire-prone regions over the past two years, revealing challenges communities face when shelters are unreachable. “Those discussions showed us that preparedness depends on accessibility,” Ermagun said. “We are now expanding that insight to all major hazards nationwide.”
Beyond scientific advancement, the project will contribute to STEM education and workforce development through collaboration with George Mason’s Aspiring Scientists Summer Internship Program (ASSIP), a university STEM outreach program that offers hands-on opportunities for high school and college students to engage in high-impact research.
“We’re working to equip emergency managers, public officials, communities, and the next generation of scientists with the knowledge and tools they need to adapt to a new era of frequent natural hazards,” Ermagun said. “Our goal is to make disaster planning not just reactive but genuinely ready.”
